The stalemate continues between buyers and sellers in Toronto’s real estate market this month. It’s easy to get excited because sales are up from last year — but let’s remember that last year was an exceptionally bad year. In the broader view, the fall market has been relatively weak in the long-term context against the typical month of September.

Key September points

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) posted its monthly Market Watch report, and here are the key points you need to know from the summary: 

1. Sales are up 8.5 per cent from last year.
2. New listings are up 10.5 per cent, slightly outpacing sales. 
3. Properties taking 35-45 per cent longer to sell compared to last September.
4. Because of slowed sales cycle, active listings are up 35.5 per cent! Supply accumulation is becoming substantial.
5. House prices are still grinding down — nominally, 1.0 per cent below last year, with real house prices down 3.0 per cent when adjusted for inflation.

Source: TRREB

Recovery or rebalancing? 

TRREB argues the uptick in sales we’re seeing is the result of favourable market conditions, such as interest rate cuts and revised mortgage lending guidelines. These factors are certainly important to recovery, but a deeper look suggests that the GTA market might be more balanced than on a path to full recovery.

It’s worth seeing a long-term “sideways” market, rather than an “upwards” one. The key factor here is the rate of growth in supply, which has outpaced demand, challenging the notion of a straightforward recovery. Until that changes meaningfully from buyers entering the market more quickly than sellers, it’s tough to imagine a complete recovery has begun.

Sales increase due to new opportunities for buyers, but price still most important factor

The 8.5 per cent year-over-year increase in home sales (4,996 in September 2024, up from 4,606 in September 2023) is presented as evidence of recovery. TRREB President Jennifer Pearce attributes this increase to buyers capitalizing on lower borrowing costs and adjustments to mortgage lending guidelines.

These changes include:

1. rate cuts from the Bank of Canada 
2. reduced five-year fixed mortgages from a falling Canadian five-year bond yield
3. the coming introduction of longer amortization periods
4. the ability to insure mortgages for homes valued up to $1.5 million 

These factors certainly make the market more affordable for some buyers who are limited by capital costs and the lending environment. However, with the B20 stress test still in place and buyers qualifying at rates over 5.0 per cent, price ultimately becomes the most important factor for many buyers looking to re-enter the market.

Easing of stress test could build staying power

To this end, TRREB highlights that the easing of the mortgage stress tests for existing homeowners on renewal could build some staying power into the market, by making homeowners and investors able to afford to keep their homes rather than selling when faced with financial stress.

TRREB also expects further rate cuts to allow a growing number of households to afford homeownership. This notion is especially pointed at first-time buyers, who have been outlined by the Bank of Canada as nearly 50 per cent of all homebuyers, representing a key demographic for those hoping for a recovery in the market. 

Supply outpacing demand

A closer analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. While demand (measured in sales) grew, the rate of new listings entering the market has grown even faster, by 10.5 year-over-year, slightly outpacing sales growth. In September, 18,089 new listings were added to the MLS, contributing to an already better-supplied market. This gap between supply and demand, rather than indicating a shortage of homes, points to an easing of market pressures and a better market for buyers to enter. 

Compounding this, we’re seeing a significantly increased “time to sell” — meaning it takes an extra week for a listing to sell, compared to the average 20 days on market from September last year. This slowing absorption has led supply to accumulate, with active listings now up 35.5 per cent compared to September 2023.

Ability to negotiate on price: Indicates a market no longer heavily favoured to sellers

Should this trend continue to hold, it’s reasonable to expect that buyers will resume their home search as they see more homes on the market and hope they can capitalize on the supply, shop around and negotiate with sellers. This is how the imbalance between supply and demand is further materialized, in a decline in prices.

The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 4.6 per cent year-over-year, and the average selling price in September dropped 1.0 per cent compared to the previous year.

TRREB attributes this to increased negotiating power for buyers, especially in the more affordable segments like condominiums and townhouses, which are favoured by first-time buyers. More activity in the lower ends of the market can skew the average down. Interestingly, 416 condominium sales are actually up year-over-year, despite the market being in a severe state of excess supply. The ability to negotiate on price is a clear indicator of a market that’s no longer tilted heavily in favour of sellers.

Source: TRREB

The pricing context: A “recovery” in question

A true market recovery, by definition, would generally see home prices stabilizing or even increasing as demand starts to outpace supply. However, this is not currently the case in the GTA.

While average selling prices have edged up slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to August 2024, the year-over-year decline in benchmark prices suggests that the market has not fully recovered to its previous highs. Affordability challenges that plagued the market before the interest rate hikes are being alleviated, but they haven’t disappeared.

Furthermore, while rate cuts may improve affordability in the short term, they don’t necessarily address the long-term structural issues in the housing market, such as supply constraints or high construction costs. It’s worth noting that while lower borrowing costs can temporarily boost demand, they can also encourage speculative buying, which could further distort the market, particularly if supply doesn’t keep pace.

Recovering sales, but not prices

Despite TRREB’s optimistic messaging, the GTA housing market appears to be in a state of balance rather than recovery. Yes, sales are up, and rate cuts have eased some of the financial pressure on buyers and sellers. On the other hand, the growing supply of homes, coupled with modest price declines, suggests a more buyer-friendly market, one in which supply is catching up to — and in some cases, surpassing — demand.

This dynamic is providing more negotiating power to buyers, and while that’s a positive development for affordability, it doesn’t necessarily signal a robust recovery in price. Instead, the current market is best characterized as one where buyers have regained some control, but where underlying challenges around housing supply and affordability remain.

The return to a balanced market does point to a steady resurrection of sales activity, which is welcome news for the real estate profession that has been dealing with drastically reduced activity for some time now.  

On Friday, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board announced the appointment of Kevin Crigger as its new associate CEO. Crigger will also serve as president of PropTx Innovations Inc., TRREB’s subsidiary providing MLS and technology services to real estate boards and associations.

TRREB says this combined role marks “a new era of transformative advancements across the real estate sector.”

‘I am honoured to serve a community that has had such a positive impact on my life’

About his new role, Crigger says he’s honoured to join TRREB as associate CEO. He looks forward to working with its leadership team and realtor members to support real estate professionals in serving their clients and communities and advance TRREB’s services and engagement with members.

“The TRREB community is inclusive, diverse and impactful, and I am honoured to serve a community that has had such a positive impact on my life,” he adds.

Crigger also looks forward to continued collaboration with realtor volunteers and association staff across the country, “while leveraging our collective experience and expertise to support and empower real estate professionals in their service to clients and communities.”

‘This new chapter will allow me to give back … With this new role, I will no longer be a practicing realtor’

Crigger will work with CEO John DiMichele to oversee the strategic direction of the organizations and plan future operations. This will also mean playing a key role in fostering partnerships and stakeholder collaboration.

“I am incredibly excited to welcome Kevin to our leadership teams,” says TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “Kevin’s in-depth knowledge of the real estate industry, coupled with his innovative mindset, make him an invaluable member of the team. His guidance is essential as we continue providing our members and their clients with advanced tools and services.”

As for his existing career selling real estate, Crigger explains, “Having been a proud realtor and TRREB member for nearly 14 years, this new chapter will allow me to give back to an organization and industry that has given so much to me personally. With this new role, I will no longer be a practicing realtor.”

His role with PropTx

As president of PropTx Innovations Inc., Crigger will leverage technology to redefine real estate services, ensuring realtors and consumers benefit from advanced tools, streamlined processes, enhanced member services and widespread industry collaboration.

“The appointment of Kevin marks a significant milestone in our journey to redefine real estate technology. His business acumen and results-driven leadership will help continue to propel PropTx’s vision forward, advancing our technological offerings to better serve the realtor community in an ever-evolving landscape,” says PropTx board chair Paul Baron.

Crigger’s background

Crigger has been an active Toronto realtor for over 10 years, holding multiple awards in both resale and new development sales. He previously served as the president of TRREB and the Ontario Realtors Care Foundation (ORCF), as well as chair of PropTx Innovations Inc.

As well, he has served on several committees and task forces at the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), as well as TRREB, ORCF and RECO (Real Estate Council of Ontario).

An ‘exciting time for all of us’

Jennifer Pearce, TRREB’s president, notes that Crigger’s track record of driving innovation and building strategic partnerships “will be instrumental in achieving our vision of empowering realtors to promote sustainable and thriving communities, and make him an exceptional choice for our future initiatives.”

Those in the industry are looking forward to what’s next, too.

Karen Yolevski, COO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., notes that Crigger has enjoyed a long and esteemed career with the company at Johnston & Daniel. She adds, “We at both Johnston & Daniel and Royal LePage are incredibly proud of his appointment to these prominent roles at TRREB and PropTx.

Kevin is a visionary leader with the strategic expertise to drive the real estate industry forward. This is an exciting time for all of us, and we look forward to seeing what the future holds.”

Crigger stresses his passion for supporting members and what he plans to achieve in his new role: “Together we will not only continue to elevate the standard of excellence in our industry but also make a meaningful difference in the ever-evolving landscape of real estate.”

Photo: Council of Multiple Listing Services

On Monday, the federal government announced changes to mortgage rules to help more qualified buyers access mortgages and become homeowners.

The changes, taking effect this year on December 15, include allowing 30-year amortizations for first-time buyers and for newly constructed homes, along with a higher limit on insured mortgages ($1 million to $1.5 million) to reflect current housing prices. As well, homeowners will have the freedom to switch mortgage lenders at renewal without having to take a new stress test.

“We are now making the boldest mortgage reforms in decades to unlock homeownership for younger Canadians,” says The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, deputy prime minister and minister of finance, in a statement. 

“Everyone deserves a safe and affordable place to call home, and these mortgage measures will go a long way in helping Canadians looking to buy their first home,” The Honourable Sean Fraser, minister of housing, infrastructure and communities, adds.

Support from the country’s national industry voice

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) says it welcomes the announced reforms, which represent a significant step towards improving access to homeownership and making housing more attainable, something realtors have long advocated for and continue to stand behind.

“This is good news for buyers, particularly first-time buyers and those in more expensive markets such as Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), as well as Vancouver and surrounding areas,” says Janice Myers, CREA CEO.

Broad support across the industry

The mortgage reforms will drive more housing construction and supply and reflect recommendations that the Canadian Home Builders’ Association (CHBA) has been calling for. The organization says it’s just what the market needs to help correct the falling trajectory of housing starts and build more homes.

Likewise, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) says it strongly supports these measures, which will help reduce the monthly cost of mortgage payments and make homeownership a reality for more people across the country, as well as stimulate new housing construction and help address the ongoing housing shortage in our communities.

Karen Yolevski, COO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., agrees. In a company blog post, she notes, “For many homebuyer hopefuls, the monthly mortgage payment is often the deciding factor between a property that fits in their budget and one that doesn’t. An extra few years to spread out those payments will help many purchasers make the transition from renter to homeowner. Those shopping in Canada’s most expensive markets, where home prices over $1 million are the norm, will also find it a little easier to get into the market.”

Myers shares similar sentiments: “In a recent budget submission, we had advocated for extending 30-year amortization terms to all first-time buyers. We’re pleased our suggestion was adopted to provide more opportunities for homeownership.”

Yolevski expects the implementation of the new rules to likely follow another interest rate cut or two this year. “Lower borrowing costs, combined with these extended mortgage powers, may stir first-time buyer demand in the months ahead, setting the stage for a robust spring market in 2025.”

TRREB: Another call to action

TRREB notes that increasing the insured mortgage price cap in today’s market will allow more people to qualify for an insured mortgage and provide crucial homebuyer support in high-cost areas like the GTA.

It also supports the government’s earlier decision to allow insured mortgage holders to switch lenders at renewal without undergoing a new mortgage stress test and would like this extended to uninsured mortgages, typically those where the homeowner made a larger down payment.

“We have long advocated for these measures, particularly for homeowners to be able to switch lenders at mortgage renewal without a stress test,” notes TRREB CEO, John DiMichele. “Increased competition among lenders is good for homeowners and homeownership, so we reiterate our call for this measure to be extended to mortgage renewals for those who do not require mortgage insurance.”

CMBA: Price cap jump ‘reflects lack of policy change in over 10 years … will finally provide more options’

The Canadian Mortgage Brokers Association — British Columbia (CMBA-BC) and its sister organization, CMBA National, are also in support. For several years, they’ve consistently called for “real changes to address mortgage eligibility policy, (with British Columbians) having felt squeezed out of almost every market in B.C. and across Canada.”

“We are pleased to see the federal government has finally listened to our advice and expanded eligibility of 30-year mortgage amortizations to include all first-time homebuyers as well as buyers of new build homes,” says Rebecca Casey, president of CMBA-BC.

“The announcement of an increase in the price cap for insured mortgages to $1.5 million will also provide additional flexibility for homebuyers as they will not need to make a 20 per cent down payment for an additional $500,000 in purchase price,” adds Casey. “This reflects the lack of a change in this policy in over 10 years and will finally provide more options to homebuyers on how to place a downpayment on their future home.”

‘Canada can’t aim to double housing starts, or to industrialize the housing sector to achieve that, if buyers can’t buy’

“These types of changes are exactly what CHBA has been calling for, because we simply can’t build homes, be they condominiums, townhomes or whatever housing form makes sense if owners can’t qualify for mortgages,” states Kevin Lee, CEO of CHBA.

Lee explains that better access to mortgages will enable buyers to access the market, driving more housing starts and giving industry a chance to push towards targets to close the supply-demand gap. He adds, “Canada can’t aim to double housing starts, or to industrialize the housing sector to achieve that, if buyers can’t buy — it’s exactly these types of policy changes that are needed to create the conditions necessary to move forward.”

TRREB President Jennifer Pearce notes that TRREB members continue to support first-time buyers with the purchase of their homes. “The latest changes to mortgage rules are a step in the right direction and provide affordability and flexibility for homebuyers,” she says. “We look forward to our continued collaboration with CREA and the federal government as we work together to achieve our shared goal of ensuring more Ontarians can access housing and financing options that meet their needs.”

Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights Blueprint

The Canadian government also announced its release of blueprints for a Renters’ Bill of Rights and a Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights. CREA says it’s aligned with the four guiding principles laid out but will continue to engage with government as discussions evolve.

Myers points out, “The federal government has acknowledged the primary role of provinces and territories in regulating real estate and the desire to work collaboratively to build a national consensus and strengthen housing access and affordability for all Canadians.”

She notes that CREA will continue working with governments and stakeholders to develop solutions across the full housing spectrum.

CHBA response to argument of rules’ inflationary effect on market

CHBA understands that some feel improving access to mortgages will have an inflationary effect on the market, particularly now, but that the extreme under-supply of homes Canada has faced over recent years is a much stronger home price inflation driver.

“If we don’t quickly start building more houses, falling interest rates will create more demand on the limited number of homes available, further driving up prices,” Lee asserts.

“We need to come at the housing shortage from every angle, and adjusting mortgage rules is a big part of that. Canadians who want to buy their first home need a fair opportunity to do so, and young Canadians who were able to buy a starter home, like a condominium, need to be able to get an insured mortgage for their next home, for example, a new townhome.

Today’s changes will help enable them to do so, and will drive more supply of the types of housing Canada needs.”

Like much of the country’s real estate industry, Myers expresses that CREA remains focused on advocating for policies that will help drastically increase housing supply across the continuum so that all Canadians find a home that meets their needs.

I’m always reluctant to draw any conclusions about housing markets based on seasonally low data. More specifically, July-August and December-January typically have suppressed sales volume, so using them to guide decision-making can lead us astray.

Source: TRREB

With that being said, there are a few key things to be mindful of in Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)’s most recent Market Watch release:

Home sales are down by 5.3 per cent compared to August last year. This is relatively in line with the declines we’ve seen each month in 2024. As well, homes are taking much longer to sell (40-57 per cent increase in days-on-market).

As a result, inventory continues to accumulate in the absence of absorption, so active listings are up significantly (46.2 per cent). Nominal prices are down slightly (0.8 per cent), so when adjusted for current inflation, real house prices are down over 3.0 per cent since last year.

The fourplex pump

Source: TRREB

When you unpack these data points a little further, you can get a better understanding of the market.

Some things stand out here:

1. Area code 416 detached home sales is the only category posting a YoY increase in number of units sold in August, up 8.3 per cent. It’s also the only category posting a YoY increase in price, up 3.2 per cent.

2. Area code 416 condominiums and townhouses have both seen double-digit drops in volume.

Presumably, the municipality’s upzoning of residential neighbourhoods in Toronto to four units has had some positive impact. A floor on area code 416 detached homes would be established by the last buyer in the market — an investor looking to tear down the home and rebuild a multiplex there. Their output value has now gone from one or two units to four units, as a purchaser can now build a fourplex on detached lots.

In the 905 area code, detached sales appear to be resilient, but less optimistic than in 416. The 905 area code’s detached sales number saw a 3.3 per cent decrease.

The cooling condominium market

Condominium units are a very different story from the detached market. We’ve been hearing alarming reports of condominium volume piling up, with product exceeding 12 months of inventory at some periods.

Condominium apartment sales continue to decline, currently at a rate of 11.4 per cent across the GTA compared to August of last year. This decline is reflected further in the preconstruction condominium sales market, where sales are 50 to 75 per cent below the long-term average.

Declining rents and increasing interest rates have created a difficult cash flow scenario for condominium investors. As a result, many are looking to offload assets, and very few are looking to purchase these assets.

Source: TRREB

Pricing

Prices are down across the board on TRREB. Notably, beyond condominiums, recipients of the pandemic’s urban exodus are seeing a steeper recoil from peak pricing, which seems to correlate heavily with the magnitude of price increases during the exodus.

Source: TRREB

Moving forward

With another 25 basis point rate cut from the Bank of Canada, some pressure has been eased for financial stress on certain sellers. Fixed rates are declining, so there’s a little more light at the end of the tunnel for those facing a steep mortgage payment increase upon renewal in 2025 and 2026.

The bigger question is when interest rate cuts will have a material impact on bringing purchasers back to the market. So far, the impact of 75 bps rate cuts has been relatively muted, as the weight of financial stress seems to outweigh the benefit of lower rates.

The term “missing middle” has become as common in today’s real estate vocabulary as “a hot market” or “location, location, location.” Cliches often have some truth in them — and in the case of the “missing middle,” it’s gaining traction in the Canadian real estate market in part due to the rise of a newer property type: multiplexes.

Changes in B.C. and Toronto

Multiplexes are residential homes that consist of multiple separate units within what would have traditionally been a lot designated for a single detached home. They can generally vary from two to eight units.

In 2023, British Columbia made amendments to their Housing Statutes (Residential Development) Amendment Act — more commonly referred to as “Bill 44.” That same year, Toronto’s city council adopted its own Official Plan Amendment and Zoning Bylaw Amendment to allow multiplexes throughout the city.  

Jasmine Cracknell-Young, vice president of market advisory at Zonda, saw that the rise of multiplex listings in Toronto jumped dramatically since these amendments. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), in 2023 there were 115 listings and in 2024, 168 listings — a 46.1 per cent increase.

“I think because housing has become such a hot topic, we have all levels of government finally talking about it because they realize the crisis that we’re in,” she comments. 

A ‘tiny part of the market’: Legislation may not go far enough

Chris Spoke, builder and developer with Toronto Standard, has seen firsthand the impact of these legal changes on housing projects. Personally, he doesn’t believe the legislation goes far enough. 

“So we have five residential zones in Toronto. Two of those residential zones do support multi-unit housing, but the zoning bylaws paired with the city’s Official Plan and the language of it is if there’s any new development within the neighborhood’s designation, it has to respect and reinforce the existing physical character.

(This) means that even if the zoning technically allows for multi-unit housing, if it’s not consistent with the existing physical character, then you’re not going to get past this test,” Spoke explains. “We’ve still not seen a lot of activity because I think the multiplex bylaw doesn’t go far enough in terms of the permissions. So it’s still like a tiny part of the market.”

Optimism and opposition: Major Streets Study

However, Spoke is optimistic that multiplexes will continue to rise in popularity in Toronto, particularly with the momentum surrounding the Major Streets Study which “focuses on permitting gentle density — missing middle housing — on major streets in low-rise neighbourhoods across Toronto.”

“These are the major arterials in the city that have bus routes on them,” adds Spoke. “So this also opened up a new scale of development in parts of the city where it was not legal before.”

However, these policies are met with some opposition. When it comes to the Major Streets Policy, traffic is a big concern among current residents.

“It’s always traffic,” shares Cracknell-Young. “They just think it’s taking up road space.”

Bill 44 in B.C. addresses these concerns by eliminating new vehicles from entering neighbourhoods altogether in some cases: if a housing project is within 400 metres of a transit stop, no minimum parking is required. Transportation accessibility is poised to play a significant role in the development of multiplex housing.

Ottawa: Multiplex increases expected post-bylaw approval in 2025

Nachiket Kulkarni, an architectural designer with Architrix Studio, has worked on multiplex projects both in Vancouver and Ottawa, where he now lives.

“Ottawa would be two or three years behind Vancouver when it comes to that change,” he says. “So whatever happens in Vancouver right now, the same change would be in Ottawa two or three years down the line in terms of multiplexes.”

While Kulkarni has seen a big shift towards more multiplex development over the past couple of years in Ottawa, he anticipates that to increase even further after December 2025, when the new zoning bylaw is expected to have final approval.

“In Ottawa, they’ve consolidated the number of zones into just six zones now, just like Vancouver did,” adds Kulkarni.

In October 2023, the City of Vancouver implemented a new zoning designation, “R1-1,” otherwise known as “Residential Inclusive.” This was put in place to replace and simplify the previous zoning structure, which included various RS (One-Family Dwelling), RT (Two-Family Dwelling) and RM (Multiple Dwelling) designations.

And similar to Toronto and Vancouver, Ottawa’s changes will also aim to reduce parking requirements.

‘Citizen developers’ on the rise

Spoke believes that with these new changes, multiplexes will open the door towards something he refers to as “citizen developers:” where those such as home builders, general contractors and even everyday homeowners can actively participate in building up new housing opportunities.

“Multiplexes offer a form of development that’s accessible to people who haven’t worked professionally as developers,” Spoke says.

While multiplexes will likely not solve all of our housing problems overnight, they provide an opportunity to think of density in a more nuanced manner. 

“I think it’s a really great product form. You can have multiplexes go into existing communities and have people of different incomes and demographics able to access some of the best communities that we have,” says Cracknell-Young. “To stop the sprawl and have more people in our existing communities where it’s possible … I hope that we will see more of them.”

Image: ShapeYourCity.ca

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and its member realtors are supporting high school students pursuing post-secondary education with the TRREB Past President’s Scholarship.

Since the program’s 2007 inception, 73 students have received a total of $264,500 to put toward their futures.

‘TRREB member realtors are helping to open doors … empowering students to pursue their dreams’

To qualify, each student must write a compelling essay dealing with key issues in the real estate industry, and the winners can win one of two $5,000 first-place, $2,500 second-place, $2,000 third-place and $1,500 fourth-place prizes.

“TRREB member realtors are helping to open doors beyond real estate. We’re empowering students to pursue their dreams with our Past President’s Scholarship. The longevity of this initiative is a testament to how the real estate industry truly cares about giving back and making a difference,” says TRREB president, Jennifer Pearce.

Award-winning essays and their proposed industry solutions

First place

The first-place winners are Tejiri Inikori and Dev Katyal. Inikori’s essay addresses the challenges of housing affordability in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and the flexibility renting offers individuals and families. Inikori is heading to Queen’s University for its kinesiology program.

Katyal’s essay proposes three solutions to tackle the housing affordability crisis: revisiting zoning, more purpose-built rentals and providing support for vulnerable households. This fall, Katyal will study computer science at the University of Waterloo.

Second place

In second place are Daniel Tan and Jaden da Silva. Tan’s essay explores what’s needed to accommodate our growing population. Tan is attending the University of Western Ontario for computer science and Ivey Business School in the fall.

da Silva’s essay compares housing in Tokyo and Austria and how these regions address building more homes and affordability. da Silva will attend the University of Toronto and major in neuroscience and economics.

Third place

The third-place winners are Elisa Gabriele and Ethan Berger. Gabriele’s essay uncovers if the rental market is keeping up with the growing demand for housing. Gabriele will attend the University of Waterloo this fall for architectural engineering.

Berger’s essay discusses government and its efforts to get more shovels in the ground. Berger will attend the University of Guelph to study animal science.

Fourth place

Yulia Senyuk took the fourth-place award. Senyuk’s essay highlights the rising cost of renting and the impact this is having on consumer debt. Senyuk enrolled in the Schulich School of Business at York University.

Learn more about TRREB’s Past President’s Scholarship, including when to apply for the 2025 program.

In the Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) housing market, July 2024 tells a story of resurgence and adjustment. A previously stagnant market is now starting to revive, with home sales increasing by 3.3 per cent, reaching 5,391 transactions compared to last July’s 5,220.

This renewed activity is highlighted by an 18.5 per cent rise in new listings from the previous year, providing prospective buyers with more options. However, the revival also reveals contrasting elements — as supply grows and choices expand, the average selling price sees a slight decline, reflecting the complex dynamics between supply, demand and market pressures.

Across these shifts, the condominium sector presents its own scenario, with rental demand rising but being outpaced by an influx of new listings, resulting in more choices and slightly lower rents for tenants.

Significantly more listings helped boost supply and drop prices

July 2024’s GTA home sales rebounded from a previous stagnation and suggest a gradually recovering market. This increase in sales was matched by a significant rise in new listings with 16,293 in July, representing an 18.5 per cent increase compared to the same time last year. 

Clearly, there is an improved market supply, which helps to keep up with demand as prospective buyers have a much larger array of choices available. 

Source: TRREB

Despite the rise in both sales and new listings last month, the GTA’s average selling price declined by 5.0 per cent year-over-year. Reported at $1,106,617, it marked a 0.9 per cent (over $10,000) decrease from the $1,116,950 recorded in July 2023. The reduction in prices can be attributed to the increased inventory which has helped decrease demand pressure on the housing market.

Source: TRREB

Condominium sales and rentals

With this in mind, the GTA’s condominium market had mixed results. Condominium rentals experienced a substantial increase in Q2 2024 with 17,400 rentals compared to 13,896 rentals in Q2 2023. This was a 25.2 per cent increase, but the number of new condominium rental listings rose even more significantly, up by 51.3 per cent year-over-year. 

Source: TRREB

Despite the higher demand for rental accommodations, tenants have benefited from increased choice and slightly lower average rents. On average, a one-bedroom condominium apartment in Q2 2024 rented for $2,452, reflecting a 3.1 per cent decline from the $2,529 average rent in Q2 2023. Similarly, the average rent for a two-bedroom condominium was down by 1.9 per cent to $3,178 from $3,239 in the previous year.

Although there was a substantial increase in condominium rentals, condominium sales dropped to 5,474 in Q2 2024 from 6,824 in Q2 2023, a 19.8 per cent decrease. In contrast, the number of new listings surged by 36.5 per cent year-over-year, reaching 16,917. The average selling price of condominium apartments in Q2 2024 was $729,005 a slight drop from $737,925 at the same time in 2023.

Source: TRREB

Toronto reported a 0.5 per cent decrease in its average selling price of $765,963, while Durham has one of the GTA’s lowest condominium sales and lowest average prices in Q2 2024.

As we look at the GTA’s housing market for mid-2024, the combination of rising transactions and falling prices reflects a market in transition. A 3.3 per cent increase in home sales alongside a 5.0 per cent decrease in average prices highlights the balance between growing supply and moderated demand.

In the condominium sector, we’re seeing a similar trend — a significant rise in rentals contrasting with declining sales and a notable increase in new listings. This evolving market presents both opportunities and challenges, indicating that while recovery is underway, the future will be complex and multifaceted. Our 2024 housing market is more than just numbers; it illustrates the dynamic interaction of economic forces, buyer sentiment, and strategic adjustments.

It’s no surprise Toronto’s housing market is reaching critical levels as the rising cost of living, high rental rates, a shortage of construction workers and the city’s growing population are exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand.

Toronto is experiencing a surge in condominium listings, but few highlight that the suites are primarily small and not fit for family living. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)’s June 2024 market watch data, listings for units in the 500- to 599-square-foot range soared by 50 per cent compared to last year.

Are Torontonians being heard?

Unfortunately, family-sized condominiums make up only about 10 per cent of the market, despite a growing and pressing demand from families. This shortage of larger, multi-bedroom suites designed for families and multigenerational living leaves many buyers, particularly those seeking homes that accommodate extended families, underserved and frustrated. This begs the question: when it comes to housing supply, are Torontonians being heard?

In April, we conducted a survey with members of the Angus Reid forum to capture what Torontonians are feeling about Toronto condominiums, and the results were illuminating. Almost half of respondents (47 per cent) see the potential for condominiums to be their long-term homes, and this statement is echoed strongly by current condominium dwellers, with 71 per cent expressing confidence in condominium living.

However, despite the increase in positive outlook, a staggering 93 per cent of respondents believe that Toronto needs better-built condominiums that suit people’s lifestyle needs, and nearly four in five respondents think that most Toronto condominium units are poorly constructed, indicating dissatisfaction with the current landscape.

Market caters to a misguided notion of “investor” instead of “end-user” condominiums

For condominium developers like us, this disconnect between what’s available in the market and what Torontonians need and want is strikingly clear. For far too long the market has catered to a misguided notion of what “investor”-focused condominiums are, rather than “end-user” condominiums.

This belief has been that investor buyers are predominantly interested in smaller units.

We believe all condominiums should be end-user-focused, and by meeting the demands of end-users, they become a good investment as well. This notion of catering to investors has led the market with an overwhelming supply of small units that many do not deem as viable homes.

Understanding and responding to Torontonians’ housing needs

A home should inspire pride and satisfaction. It should not be a compromise driven by convenience. Torontonians need not settle for underwhelming condominium developments with small suite layouts and poor build quality. Developers need to listen and create homes that meet the real needs and aspirations of the people, rather than simply adding more shoebox units to Toronto’s already imbalanced housing stock.

All of this just scratches the surface of the issue. Beyond size alone, developers bear the responsibility to construct sustainable, high-quality homes that meet people’s expectations. Much of today’s condominium stock lacks the thoughtful architecture, quality and design necessary to make condominiums both a comfortable and enjoyable home for everyone.

We’ve all heard the same story from our friends who live in condominiums: “I can hear my neighbours,” “The wait time for the elevators is far too long,” and so on. It’s really no wonder that more than 34 per cent of Torontonians believe that owning a condominium is like owning a box in the sky, but it doesn’t have to be that way.

Liveability above all: Condominium developers need to keep quality at the core

The growing dissatisfaction among condominium owners suggests that we need to make a drastic change in what we’re building and how we’re building it.

Developers must shift their focus to quality and liveability. This means designing homes that people are proud to own and live in, with the space, comfort and amenities that support a high quality of life, creating sustainable, vertical urban environments for people of all ages and life stages. We need to build condominiums that make people want to live in Toronto and enjoy everything that our beautiful city has to offer.

Bridging the gap is a developer’s responsibility

Toronto’s housing crisis requires an approach that addresses both the quantity and quality of homes and developers have a crucial responsibility in this. The solution isn’t just about building more units; it’s about building the right kinds of homes.

Only by closing this gap between what’s available and what’s needed can we hope to resolve the crisis and create a city where everyone feels at home. 

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent, the second consecutive rate cut this year.

The Bank says that growth in the Canadian economy has picked up but is still below long-term potential and that our economy’s weakness is across both household consumption and the housing market, with the labour market softening.

Although the Bank expects growth to increase later this year and into 2025, it notes that excess supply will continue to put downward pressure on inflation.

Sidelined buyers may return to many options, activity should pick up in the fall

Karen Yolevski, COO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., weighs in: “Our research shows that many buyer hopefuls have been waiting for a concrete signal from the Bank of Canada that the economy is moving in the right direction. A second cut to the overnight lending rate indicates just that, and with mortgage qualification thresholds continuing to come down, sidelined buyers may have the confidence they need to make their return to the housing market.

We expect this will prompt a slight boost in activity in the short term, followed by more robust buyer demand in the fall. In the meantime, some much-needed inventory has been building in major markets over the last few months, giving buyers more options to choose from. In addition to lower rates, this may also encourage more buyers to re-enter the market in the near future.”

More than rate cuts needed for sales recovery

Zoocasa points out that following June’s rate cut, home sales didn’t recover as many expected — with non-seasonally-adjusted national sales down by 10.9 per cent from May to June and GTA and Metro Vancouver sales down by more than 10 per cent.

As well, the Canadian Real Estate Association adjusted its annual housing market forecast to 6.2 per cent growth from its original 10.5 per cent in April. This is reflected in excess inventory levels the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reports, with active listings up 67.4 per cent year-over-year in June.

This may not be surprising, given that a recent survey reports 42.3 per cent of respondents note home prices being their main concern about buying in today’s market, with interest rates (25.6 per cent) and economic uncertainty (14.9 per cent) following.

Christopher Alexander, president, Re/Max Canada, seems to agree: “The Bank of Canada’s decision to decrease its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point is welcome news for Canadian homebuyers who are still contending with a high cost of living and higher interest rates than we’ve seen in a long time.

We’ll likely need to see interest rates come down further for the housing market to kick into high gear again, but if they continue trending downward, there’s a possibility of a more active fall market.”

Good news for commercial real estate

Avison Young’s Mark Fieder, principal and president, Canada, notes that the rate drop will positively impact investor sentiment.

“Commercial real estate (CRE) return metrics are improving compared to other asset classes, and we expect this will further fuel investor appetite and capital allocation into CRE,” he says.

“We have been in a very uncertain interest rate environment over the last two years. This second rate drop certainly shows the Bank’s confidence in the inflation data and reinforces the fact that we are finally shifting into a different interest rate regime.”

Home sales in the GTA dropped in June compared to the same month last year. Despite the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut at the beginning of June, many potential buyers remained hesitant to enter the market. This resulted in a high supply that created a slight dip in the average selling price compared to the prior year. 

Source: TRREB

Fewer sales from a year ago but with over 12% more new listings

There were 6,213 home sales in June 2024, representing a 16.4 per cent decrease from the 7,429 sales recorded in June 2023. However, new listings increased by 12.3 per cent year-over-year, reaching 17,964. 

Source: TRREB

The average selling price in June 2024 was $1,162,167, down 1.6 per cent from $1,181,002 in June 2023. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark decreased by 4.6 per cent compared to the previous year.

First half of 2024 performed better than all of 2023

Annual sales were $1,126,279 last year. After six months into 2024, we’re currently at an average of $1,130,744 which is slightly better than all of 2023. Sales have been steadily increasing since their fall in December 2023 which helped us achieve a slightly higher sales average. The current 6,213 June sales compared to December 2023’s 3,420 demonstrates the changing economy.

Source: TRREB

While the recent rate cut provided some relief, most homebuyers are likely waiting for multiple rate reductions before re-entering the market. This proves that the current well-supplied market has given recent home buyers more choice and negotiating power on prices. As sales increase alongside lower borrowing costs, the elevated inventory levels will help prevent a rapid increase in selling prices. 

As the market adjusts to changing economic conditions, any first-time buyers and sellers in the GTA will be closely watching for further interest rate cuts and their impact on housing affordability and the ever-changing consumer market.