This morning, the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised the market by announcing a 50 basis point (bps) cut in its benchmark interest rate, bringing it down from 4.25 per cent to 3.75 per cent. As homeowners and potential buyers digest this news, the primary question on many minds is how this will impact mortgages, real estate, inflation and the broader economy.

Here’s a breakdown of what the rate cut could mean, with a focus on the housing market, mortgage renewals and the wider financial landscape.

Why a rate cut might not be all good news

At first glance, the BoC’s 50 bps rate cut might seem like positive news for borrowers. Lower interest rates generally translate to cheaper borrowing costs, which could help prospective homeowners and businesses. However, such a rate cut may not be a sign of economic health.

Often, when central banks cut rates significantly, it’s because they anticipate economic challenges ahead. In this case, the rate cut could signal concerns about a looming slowdown or potential recession in Canada. A recession could lead to deflationary risks for some parts of Canada’s economy, and when consumers feel prices are falling, they stop spending and wait for better prices. This fear is especially real outside of the housing market.

Within the housing market, we see that shelter inflation is a primary contributor to inflation in Canada, according to the BoC’s recent Monetary Policy Report, released with today’s interest rate cut. This inflationary pressure from rent and mortgage interest costs can be observed below in the CPI component breakdown. Especially worth noting is that “House price related services” have been ice-cold for the better part of two years now. Realtor commissions remain at historic lows, and the BoC could be gaining confidence that the market will not overheat in response to rate cuts.

Though the lower rate will reduce the cost of borrowing, it also suggests that the BoC is attempting to stimulate a flagging economy. While homeowners may see some relief in their monthly payments, this could be overshadowed by rising unemployment or weaker economic activity if a downturn materializes. RBC noted this reality very directly in a recent brief that characterized retail spending as “abysmal”: 

Effect on inflation due to mortgage renewals

While the BoC has cut its interest rate, inflation continues to be a concern, partly due to mortgage renewals at higher rates. Tiff Macklem, the BoC’s governor, mentioned they’re equally concerned about the risk of deflation and inflation. If we don’t see further reduction, mortgage rates could keep upward pressure on inflation into 2025 and 2026.

From mid-2020 to early 2022, Canadian mortgage rates were exceptionally low, prompting a surge in both new mortgages and refinances. As a result, a large proportion of these mortgages — about 60 per cent — are set to renew in 2025 and 2026. With today’s overnight rate now standing at 3.75 per cent, homeowners renewing their mortgages will face significantly higher payments than they did during the era of 0.25 per cent overnight rates. 

This situation has indirect implications for inflation. Higher monthly mortgage payments reduce disposable income for other goods and services, potentially slowing consumer spending and easing some inflationary pressure. However, the “base effect” comes into play, as the shift from historically low interest rates to the current elevated levels still poses a financial strain for many households. Even with the recent cut, the elevated rates for renewed mortgages will continue contributing to inflationary pressure in the Canadian economy — particularly through rising housing costs.

Bond yields control fixed-rate mortgages, not the BoC

A common misconception is that the BoC directly controls all mortgage rates. While it does influence variable mortgage rates, the majority of Canadians who opt for fixed-rate mortgages are affected more by bond yields than by the BoC’s overnight rate. Fixed-rate mortgages are very popular and closely tied to the performance of government bonds, especially the five-year one, which has been on a declining trend since April 2024.

As it stands, the bond market seems to be pricing in fewer cuts in the future, though there’s likely a bit of myopia toward the market as a result of the United States election. The market likely doesn’t anticipate any significant actions from the Federal Reserve prior to the election, as it could become too politicized. (In fact, it already seems to be.)

This means that we’ll likely need to wait until the U.S. election is over for a real idea of what will happen with bond yields and interest rates in 2025. To get an understanding of this, it’s very important to think about how the BoC monitors Federal Reserve activity. 

The importance of U.S. Federal Reserve decisions

In light of the BoC’s 50 bps cut, the interplay between Canadian and U.S. monetary policy becomes even more significant. The U.S. Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in shaping the broader North American economic landscape. Since the Canadian and U.S. economies are closely linked, the BoC must carefully consider Federal Reserve actions to avoid a widening policy gap. If the BoC continues cutting rates aggressively while the Federal Reserve holds rates steady or raises them, it risks devaluing the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, because the Canadian currency would have a lower “return” — as measured by its interest rate.

Since we purchase most of our imports in USD, a weaker CAD makes imports from the U.S. more expensive, which could drive up inflation in Canada — a risk that the BoC is keen to avoid. This is why, despite today’s cut, the BoC will remain cautious and closely watch the Federal Reserve’s decisions moving forward. The bank’s goal is to maintain a balance, ensuring that the Canadian economy stays competitive without letting inflation rise uncontrollably due to a depreciating currency.

One key byproduct in this regard is that the BoC observed exports becoming an increasing contributor to Canadian GDP. A weaker GDP could support that notion, but we don’t have a significant export-based economy to capitalize on that reality as we have in past recessions, where Canada was a larger exporter. 

A recession could help reduce inflation

Though it may seem counterintuitive, a mild recession could keep inflation at more manageable levels. Economic slowdowns typically reduce demand for goods and services, which can ease price pressures. According to economists like CIBC’s Benjamin Tal, recessions are often an inevitable part of the economic cycle and can play a role in controlling inflation. This is why Tal often states that when given the choice between inflation and a recession, the BoC will choose a recession every time. 

The BoC may be willing to allow a controlled recession if it helps bring inflation closer to its target range. While Macklem did mention in his press release question period that he felt he could stick the landing, time will tell if it’s possible. A recession would result in short-term economic hardship but has historically proven as necessary to restore balance in the economy and ensure long-term stability. This is especially true in economic setups where a risk of rising inflation might be present — and Macklem made it clear that he’s just as worried about a return of inflation as he is about deflation/recession. 

How mortgage holders and market activity will be affected

For those with variable-rate mortgages, the 50 bps rate cut will bring some immediate relief. Variable-rate mortgage holders have seen their payments increase significantly over the past year due to previous rate hikes. With the overnight rate down 50 bps, these borrowers can expect their monthly payments to decrease slightly, offering some breathing room in their budgets. Static-payment variable rate holders will see more principal paid each month. 

In this regard, the BoC can really only play to the supply side of the market by easing pressure on existing mortgage holders, reducing the likelihood that they sell their property. Because variable rates are priced higher than fixed rates in today’s market, a reduction in variable rates doesn’t “add” any buying power to the market. If buyers needed a lower rate to get more buying power, they’d have used the fixed rate. Therefore, the bond market is more in control of the demand curve in Canada through fixed-rate mortgage pricing. 

Lower interest rates typically boost housing market activity by making borrowing cheaper. However, with housing prices already elevated in many parts of Canada, today’s rate cut may not be enough to spur significant increases in homeownership, especially with the stress test still in place and most buyers opting for two-, three- or five-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Additionally, the overall economic uncertainty caused by the rate cut may cause potential buyers to remain cautious. While borrowing costs will drop, concerns about a slowing economy or job losses could temper enthusiasm for new home purchases in the short term. Many market participants seem to be adopting a “wait and see” approach, to wait even if rates continue falling, and to better understand if there are risks under the surface. 

The BoC’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 bps, bringing the overnight rate to 3.75 per cent, offers both opportunities and challenges for Canadians. While variable-rate mortgage holders will see some immediate relief, those buying with fixed-rate mortgages might not benefit as much, this early.

The broader economic implications, including potential recession risks and inflation concerns, mean that this rate cut is not all good news. Realtors, homeowners and prospective buyers should carefully consider the broader economic context as they plan their financial futures.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released its quarterly forecast on October 15 and, as it turns out, it’s a mixed bag. There’s cautious optimism as national home sales are expected to see a modest recovery, and interest rates are forecasted to drop further.

However, don’t pop the champagne just yet.

The market’s recovering, but not at a sprinting pace to the finish line

The reality of affordability challenges continues to loom over the Canadian housing market, despite interest rate optimism felt by the real estate industry. According to Bloomberg, Canadian interest rates would need to fall 350 bps to restore pre-covid affordability:

Source: Bloomberg

CREA’s forecast highlights a steady uptick in home sales — largely thanks to recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. A 5.2 per cent bump in sales for 2024 is being touted as a sign of recovery.

Although this is what we’ve all been waiting for, some regions are still dragging their feet. And price increases, while present, are lukewarm at best. In other words, the market’s recovering, but it’s not exactly sprinting to the finish line.

The (not so) immediate impact of interest rate cuts

Three interest rate cuts in 2024, and what do we have to show for it? Well, according to CREA’s report, national home sales recorded over Canadian MLS systems inched up 1.9 per cent in September compared to August. It’s the highest level since July 2023.

With each rate cut, sales have bumped up slightly, but the market is not all sunshine yet as consumer sentiment has remained low. 

CREA’s senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, is already warning that buyers might hit the pause button, waiting for the next round of rate cuts next year — the market could stall again before the rebound we’re all supposed to get excited about in 2025. This is one of the primary reasons that interest rate cuts take such a long time to move through the market. If buyers see more rate cuts ahead, they may wait for lower rates, especially if they don’t see prices rebounding anytime soon. 

Experts seem to think they could be wrong, though. TD Bank recently projected that recent CMHC insurance changes will front-load any house price increases into the first half of 2025, leading to slower growth at the end of next year:

6.9 per cent increase in September home sales but prices still down year-over-year

September saw a 6.9 per cent increase in home sales compared to the same time last year. This sounds great, but the reality is that the market is stabilizing after the roller coaster ride of relatively higher interest rates and the economic turmoil we’ve seen in the last couple of years.

Interestingly, the number of newly listed properties shot up 4.9 per cent, suggesting that sellers are feeling brave enough to test the waters. This is a welcome change compared to the “wait and see” approach we’d seen from sellers earlier in the year when they seemed to hope rate cuts would help them achieve a better price or faster sale. With prices down 3.3 per cent year-over-year, it appears interest rates are not supporting price growth the way they’d hoped.

CREA is quick to point out that month-to-month, things are trending upwards. In short, we’re on the mend, but it’s hardly over yet. 

Housing prices rising slow and steady 

According to CREA’s forecast, the national average home price saw a year-over-year increase of 0.9 per cent, bringing the average to $683,200. Looking ahead, prices are projected to rise another 4.4 per cent in 2025, crossing the $700,000 mark ($713,375 to be precise), which suggests solid market fundamentals. As mentioned before, this growth could be aided by recent changes to Canadian mortgage rules, increasing the CMHC limit to $1.5 million.

For now, prices are mostly flat with only minor month-over-month fluctuations. This could be considered good news for those considering selling their home in the near future, where the absence of volatility makes the market much safer to buy and sell simultaneously. This is a welcome change from the high-stress buyer’s markets we’ve seen across Canada over the last few years.   

More listings, more options — but not necessarily more sales

September had a significant rise in new listings — up 4.9 per cent from August. On the surface, this sounds like a great thing for buyers who’ve been struggling to find a decent property. But the surge in listings hasn’t exactly translated into a flood of sales. In fact, sales are climbing at a slower rate than new listings, and this could tip the balance toward buyers — eventually.

The increase in supply should give buyers more leverage, but for now, the market is still holding steady in what CREA calls “balanced” territory. In other words, neither buyers or sellers are fully in control, but this could change if listings keep rising and sales don’t pick up pace. 

Months of inventory has stabilized just above four months, though the sales-to-new listings ratio continues to slow down, meaning buyers aren’t absorbing new listings as quickly as they were. 

185,000+ properties listed in September, below historical average — power could soon shift to buyers 

As of September, there were 185,427 properties listed for sale on MLS systems nationwide, up 16.8 per cent from the previous year. Keep in mind that we’re still below the historical average of around 200,000 listings.

The national sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 51.3 per cent in September from 52.8 per cent in August. While this is consistent with a balanced market, it’s worth noting that if listings keep rising and sales don’t, the power could soon shift to buyers. 

Will the real estate market rebound in 2025? It’s never as smooth as it sounds

According to CREA, home sales are forecast to climb by 6.6 per cent in 2025, with 499,800 units expected to change hands. This optimism hinges on expectations of even more interest rate cuts and a friendlier economic environment.

The narrative here is clear — 2025 is the year when everything is supposed to come together. Demand will surge, inventory will remain low and prices will rise steadily. But as always, there are still plenty of variables at play, and it’s never as smooth as it sounds.

CREA’s latest forecast paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the Canadian housing market. While 2024 is showing some incremental improvements, real action is expected in 2025 when interest rates drop further.

Until then, we can expect more of the same: a slow, steady recovery that’s more about survival than celebration. Buyers and sellers alike should keep their expectations in check as we move through the final months of 2024.

The stalemate continues between buyers and sellers in Toronto’s real estate market this month. It’s easy to get excited because sales are up from last year — but let’s remember that last year was an exceptionally bad year. In the broader view, the fall market has been relatively weak in the long-term context against the typical month of September.

Key September points

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) posted its monthly Market Watch report, and here are the key points you need to know from the summary: 

1. Sales are up 8.5 per cent from last year.
2. New listings are up 10.5 per cent, slightly outpacing sales. 
3. Properties taking 35-45 per cent longer to sell compared to last September.
4. Because of slowed sales cycle, active listings are up 35.5 per cent! Supply accumulation is becoming substantial.
5. House prices are still grinding down — nominally, 1.0 per cent below last year, with real house prices down 3.0 per cent when adjusted for inflation.

Source: TRREB

Recovery or rebalancing? 

TRREB argues the uptick in sales we’re seeing is the result of favourable market conditions, such as interest rate cuts and revised mortgage lending guidelines. These factors are certainly important to recovery, but a deeper look suggests that the GTA market might be more balanced than on a path to full recovery.

It’s worth seeing a long-term “sideways” market, rather than an “upwards” one. The key factor here is the rate of growth in supply, which has outpaced demand, challenging the notion of a straightforward recovery. Until that changes meaningfully from buyers entering the market more quickly than sellers, it’s tough to imagine a complete recovery has begun.

Sales increase due to new opportunities for buyers, but price still most important factor

The 8.5 per cent year-over-year increase in home sales (4,996 in September 2024, up from 4,606 in September 2023) is presented as evidence of recovery. TRREB President Jennifer Pearce attributes this increase to buyers capitalizing on lower borrowing costs and adjustments to mortgage lending guidelines.

These changes include:

1. rate cuts from the Bank of Canada 
2. reduced five-year fixed mortgages from a falling Canadian five-year bond yield
3. the coming introduction of longer amortization periods
4. the ability to insure mortgages for homes valued up to $1.5 million 

These factors certainly make the market more affordable for some buyers who are limited by capital costs and the lending environment. However, with the B20 stress test still in place and buyers qualifying at rates over 5.0 per cent, price ultimately becomes the most important factor for many buyers looking to re-enter the market.

Easing of stress test could build staying power

To this end, TRREB highlights that the easing of the mortgage stress tests for existing homeowners on renewal could build some staying power into the market, by making homeowners and investors able to afford to keep their homes rather than selling when faced with financial stress.

TRREB also expects further rate cuts to allow a growing number of households to afford homeownership. This notion is especially pointed at first-time buyers, who have been outlined by the Bank of Canada as nearly 50 per cent of all homebuyers, representing a key demographic for those hoping for a recovery in the market. 

Supply outpacing demand

A closer analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. While demand (measured in sales) grew, the rate of new listings entering the market has grown even faster, by 10.5 year-over-year, slightly outpacing sales growth. In September, 18,089 new listings were added to the MLS, contributing to an already better-supplied market. This gap between supply and demand, rather than indicating a shortage of homes, points to an easing of market pressures and a better market for buyers to enter. 

Compounding this, we’re seeing a significantly increased “time to sell” — meaning it takes an extra week for a listing to sell, compared to the average 20 days on market from September last year. This slowing absorption has led supply to accumulate, with active listings now up 35.5 per cent compared to September 2023.

Ability to negotiate on price: Indicates a market no longer heavily favoured to sellers

Should this trend continue to hold, it’s reasonable to expect that buyers will resume their home search as they see more homes on the market and hope they can capitalize on the supply, shop around and negotiate with sellers. This is how the imbalance between supply and demand is further materialized, in a decline in prices.

The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 4.6 per cent year-over-year, and the average selling price in September dropped 1.0 per cent compared to the previous year.

TRREB attributes this to increased negotiating power for buyers, especially in the more affordable segments like condominiums and townhouses, which are favoured by first-time buyers. More activity in the lower ends of the market can skew the average down. Interestingly, 416 condominium sales are actually up year-over-year, despite the market being in a severe state of excess supply. The ability to negotiate on price is a clear indicator of a market that’s no longer tilted heavily in favour of sellers.

Source: TRREB

The pricing context: A “recovery” in question

A true market recovery, by definition, would generally see home prices stabilizing or even increasing as demand starts to outpace supply. However, this is not currently the case in the GTA.

While average selling prices have edged up slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to August 2024, the year-over-year decline in benchmark prices suggests that the market has not fully recovered to its previous highs. Affordability challenges that plagued the market before the interest rate hikes are being alleviated, but they haven’t disappeared.

Furthermore, while rate cuts may improve affordability in the short term, they don’t necessarily address the long-term structural issues in the housing market, such as supply constraints or high construction costs. It’s worth noting that while lower borrowing costs can temporarily boost demand, they can also encourage speculative buying, which could further distort the market, particularly if supply doesn’t keep pace.

Recovering sales, but not prices

Despite TRREB’s optimistic messaging, the GTA housing market appears to be in a state of balance rather than recovery. Yes, sales are up, and rate cuts have eased some of the financial pressure on buyers and sellers. On the other hand, the growing supply of homes, coupled with modest price declines, suggests a more buyer-friendly market, one in which supply is catching up to — and in some cases, surpassing — demand.

This dynamic is providing more negotiating power to buyers, and while that’s a positive development for affordability, it doesn’t necessarily signal a robust recovery in price. Instead, the current market is best characterized as one where buyers have regained some control, but where underlying challenges around housing supply and affordability remain.

The return to a balanced market does point to a steady resurrection of sales activity, which is welcome news for the real estate profession that has been dealing with drastically reduced activity for some time now.  

There’s an interesting pattern emerging in Canadian real estate: ever since the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut, home sales have increased as buyers get improved affordability, though still well below the long-term average.

Price recovery is still yet to be found, and sales volume trended up again 1.3 per cent month-over-month in August, reaching its highest level since January 2020.

At the same time, new listing activity continues to accumulate with new listings climbing for the fourth straight month. Will this trend continue? The market will head into buyer’s market territory, where supply is outgrowing demand.

With that in mind, there are expectations that future rate cuts into 2025 well lead to cautious optimism among potential buyers and investors.

Newly listed properties in Edmonton and Calgary offset GTA decline 

Despite the uptick in sales, the market remains mostly stuck in a holding pattern as many buyers are waiting for improved affordability before making purchases.

The number of newly listed properties increased by 1.1 per cent month-over-month in August, with approximately 177,450 properties available for sale — up 18.8 per cent from the previous year, but still below historical averages.

But for the second month in a row, there was a boost in new supply in Calgary, with Edmonton also witnessing an uptick of listings. The rise of newly listed properties in Edmonton and Calgary offsets a decline in the GTA. 

Consistent, stable increase in sales-to-new-listings

The national sales-to-new listing ratio rose slightly to 53 per cent, matching our record in April. We’re a long way from returning to what was our highest average of sales-to-new listings which we achieved in December 2023: 81 per cent.

We have been relatively and consistently stable ever since our increase from January’s 46 per cent to February’s 52 per cent. So, it may be some news that we’ve matched our April 2024 average. 

Prices

After Canada experienced a record high price in 2022, the market recoiled down about as quickly as it jumped up. Since the bottom of the recoil, we’ve seen very little upward or downward momentum in price. 

Significant fluctuation in GTA condominiums

Toronto area condominium apartments are having a significant fluctuation, with a recoil off of an all-time high price and a few bounces since the blow-off top. 

Source: x.com/Tablesalt13/

It’s clear that the outlook doesn’t look good for 2025, as it seems it will touch the 350 margin — the record low from around 450 in January 2022.

I’m always reluctant to draw any conclusions about housing markets based on seasonally low data. More specifically, July-August and December-January typically have suppressed sales volume, so using them to guide decision-making can lead us astray.

Source: TRREB

With that being said, there are a few key things to be mindful of in Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)’s most recent Market Watch release:

Home sales are down by 5.3 per cent compared to August last year. This is relatively in line with the declines we’ve seen each month in 2024. As well, homes are taking much longer to sell (40-57 per cent increase in days-on-market).

As a result, inventory continues to accumulate in the absence of absorption, so active listings are up significantly (46.2 per cent). Nominal prices are down slightly (0.8 per cent), so when adjusted for current inflation, real house prices are down over 3.0 per cent since last year.

The fourplex pump

Source: TRREB

When you unpack these data points a little further, you can get a better understanding of the market.

Some things stand out here:

1. Area code 416 detached home sales is the only category posting a YoY increase in number of units sold in August, up 8.3 per cent. It’s also the only category posting a YoY increase in price, up 3.2 per cent.

2. Area code 416 condominiums and townhouses have both seen double-digit drops in volume.

Presumably, the municipality’s upzoning of residential neighbourhoods in Toronto to four units has had some positive impact. A floor on area code 416 detached homes would be established by the last buyer in the market — an investor looking to tear down the home and rebuild a multiplex there. Their output value has now gone from one or two units to four units, as a purchaser can now build a fourplex on detached lots.

In the 905 area code, detached sales appear to be resilient, but less optimistic than in 416. The 905 area code’s detached sales number saw a 3.3 per cent decrease.

The cooling condominium market

Condominium units are a very different story from the detached market. We’ve been hearing alarming reports of condominium volume piling up, with product exceeding 12 months of inventory at some periods.

Condominium apartment sales continue to decline, currently at a rate of 11.4 per cent across the GTA compared to August of last year. This decline is reflected further in the preconstruction condominium sales market, where sales are 50 to 75 per cent below the long-term average.

Declining rents and increasing interest rates have created a difficult cash flow scenario for condominium investors. As a result, many are looking to offload assets, and very few are looking to purchase these assets.

Source: TRREB

Pricing

Prices are down across the board on TRREB. Notably, beyond condominiums, recipients of the pandemic’s urban exodus are seeing a steeper recoil from peak pricing, which seems to correlate heavily with the magnitude of price increases during the exodus.

Source: TRREB

Moving forward

With another 25 basis point rate cut from the Bank of Canada, some pressure has been eased for financial stress on certain sellers. Fixed rates are declining, so there’s a little more light at the end of the tunnel for those facing a steep mortgage payment increase upon renewal in 2025 and 2026.

The bigger question is when interest rate cuts will have a material impact on bringing purchasers back to the market. So far, the impact of 75 bps rate cuts has been relatively muted, as the weight of financial stress seems to outweigh the benefit of lower rates.

Despite gaining momentum in June, after the Bank of Canada’s rate cut that month, activity in Canada’s housing market paused in July.

Last month, home sales dipped 0.7 per cent on a month-over-month basis, reversing a small portion of June’s post-first rate cut gains. There’s a likelihood of further rate cuts in the next interest rate decision with the pace of future policy likely easing.

Expectations of further policy easing and more rate cuts to come

It’s clear that we may take a while to return to the COVID era when home sales peaked in January 2021 — their highest peak since January 2009, reaching approximately 64,000 sales. Despite the 0.7 per cent drop in sales, there’s a positive side to this as sales remain close to the recorded level from June.

But after the Bank of Canada announced a second rate cut of 4.5 per cent on July 24, there have been growing expectations of further policy easing with markets anticipating additional cuts as we head into fall.

It’s good news that despite the slight dip in July, our actual monthly activity was still 4.8 per cent higher than in July 2023. As well, the number of newly listed properties increased by 0.9 per cent month-over-month with Calgary seeing a notable boost in supply.

The Home Price Index rose by 0.2 per cent from June to July, although prices remained 3.9 per cent lower than in June 2023. The national average sale price was virtually unchanged — dipping just 0.2 per cent year-over-year to $1,667,317.

A balanced market with potential for continued downward price pressure — fall will be oversupplied

Canada’s market is pretty much balanced at this point, steadily at just over four months of inventory and just over 50 per cent sales-to-new-listing ratios. This can result in continued downward pressure on prices.

All of this is correlated to the fact that national new listings inventory continued to climb in July, which is typically considered one of the slowest periods for new listings. Looking ahead into fall, there will be an oversupplied market.

Alberta and Ontario: Stabilized

The biggest price increase was observed in Edmonton and Hamilton-Burlington, whereas Calgary and Toronto both witnessed the largest average price increase, which levelled one another out. This has resulted in Alberta and Ontario stabilizing in terms of the provincial average home sales price trend over the last several months.

Interestingly enough, despite having the biggest decrease in average price, Calgary had the most number of properties listed, which contributed to the increase of 0.9 per cent of the national average. 

Source: Wowa.ca

Keeping an eye on these developments will be critical for understanding what’s in store for the industry this fall and beyond, and for helping us advise our clients well.

In the Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) housing market, July 2024 tells a story of resurgence and adjustment. A previously stagnant market is now starting to revive, with home sales increasing by 3.3 per cent, reaching 5,391 transactions compared to last July’s 5,220.

This renewed activity is highlighted by an 18.5 per cent rise in new listings from the previous year, providing prospective buyers with more options. However, the revival also reveals contrasting elements — as supply grows and choices expand, the average selling price sees a slight decline, reflecting the complex dynamics between supply, demand and market pressures.

Across these shifts, the condominium sector presents its own scenario, with rental demand rising but being outpaced by an influx of new listings, resulting in more choices and slightly lower rents for tenants.

Significantly more listings helped boost supply and drop prices

July 2024’s GTA home sales rebounded from a previous stagnation and suggest a gradually recovering market. This increase in sales was matched by a significant rise in new listings with 16,293 in July, representing an 18.5 per cent increase compared to the same time last year. 

Clearly, there is an improved market supply, which helps to keep up with demand as prospective buyers have a much larger array of choices available. 

Source: TRREB

Despite the rise in both sales and new listings last month, the GTA’s average selling price declined by 5.0 per cent year-over-year. Reported at $1,106,617, it marked a 0.9 per cent (over $10,000) decrease from the $1,116,950 recorded in July 2023. The reduction in prices can be attributed to the increased inventory which has helped decrease demand pressure on the housing market.

Source: TRREB

Condominium sales and rentals

With this in mind, the GTA’s condominium market had mixed results. Condominium rentals experienced a substantial increase in Q2 2024 with 17,400 rentals compared to 13,896 rentals in Q2 2023. This was a 25.2 per cent increase, but the number of new condominium rental listings rose even more significantly, up by 51.3 per cent year-over-year. 

Source: TRREB

Despite the higher demand for rental accommodations, tenants have benefited from increased choice and slightly lower average rents. On average, a one-bedroom condominium apartment in Q2 2024 rented for $2,452, reflecting a 3.1 per cent decline from the $2,529 average rent in Q2 2023. Similarly, the average rent for a two-bedroom condominium was down by 1.9 per cent to $3,178 from $3,239 in the previous year.

Although there was a substantial increase in condominium rentals, condominium sales dropped to 5,474 in Q2 2024 from 6,824 in Q2 2023, a 19.8 per cent decrease. In contrast, the number of new listings surged by 36.5 per cent year-over-year, reaching 16,917. The average selling price of condominium apartments in Q2 2024 was $729,005 a slight drop from $737,925 at the same time in 2023.

Source: TRREB

Toronto reported a 0.5 per cent decrease in its average selling price of $765,963, while Durham has one of the GTA’s lowest condominium sales and lowest average prices in Q2 2024.

As we look at the GTA’s housing market for mid-2024, the combination of rising transactions and falling prices reflects a market in transition. A 3.3 per cent increase in home sales alongside a 5.0 per cent decrease in average prices highlights the balance between growing supply and moderated demand.

In the condominium sector, we’re seeing a similar trend — a significant rise in rentals contrasting with declining sales and a notable increase in new listings. This evolving market presents both opportunities and challenges, indicating that while recovery is underway, the future will be complex and multifaceted. Our 2024 housing market is more than just numbers; it illustrates the dynamic interaction of economic forces, buyer sentiment, and strategic adjustments.

Canada’s housing market finds itself, as of June, poised for a comeback after a challenging year. The trigger? A strategic interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, leading to a 3.7 per cent rise in national home sales compared to May. After months of declining activity, the market is showing signs of life, but the road ahead is filled with uncertainties and hardship for both industry professionals and buyers and sellers alike.

But will this interest rate cut be enough? Is it the start of a cutting cycle? Will it get worse before it gets better? We look into the story behind the numbers, examining how economic policy, consumer sentiment and regional differences are shaping the recovery of Canada’s real estate landscape.

Dialed back expectations around interest rate cuts — cuts that would draw in buyers

Since the last forecast in April, expectations surrounding interest rate cuts this year have been dialed back as the market has seen an influx of properties with many sellers listing their homes in the spring. However, buyer activity and consumer sentiment have remained low. 

It’s anticipated that gradually lowering interest rates will eventually draw buyers back into the market. Nonetheless, the sluggish spring market and increasing supply levels have led to a downward revision in sales and average home price projections.

26% more listings than last June but below historical average

In 2024, approximately 472,395 residential properties are expected to be sold, marking a 6.1 per cent increase from 2023, whereas the total average home price is projected to rise by 2.5 per cent to $694,393.

Looking ahead to 2025, home sales are forecasted to increase by 6.2 per cent to 501,902 units, supported by continued declines in interest rates and returning demand. The national average home price is anticipated to climb by 5 per cent to $729,319.

But what really happened is by the end of June, there were about 180,000 properties listed for sale, which is a 26 per cent improvement from the previous year but remains below the historical average of approximately 200,000 sales by this month.

Possible slowdown in inventory buildup, approaching balanced market conditions

The number of new listings increased modestly by 1.5 per cent month-over-month, while the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged up by 0.1 per cent from May 2024. Despite these slight gains, the HPI was down 3.4 per cent year-over-year, and the national average sale price decreased by 1.6 per cent compared to June 2023.

The end-of-June supply of properties was up by 26 per cent from the previous year but remained below the historical average, suggesting a possible slowdown in inventory buildup. The national sales-to-new listings ratio improved to 53.9 per cent in June from 52.8 per cent in May, approaching the long-term average of 55 per cent and indicative of balanced market conditions.

Housing prices fluctuating

Regionally, housing prices continue to fluctuate. Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Montreal and Quebec City’s prices have been on an upward trajectory since early last year, while Ontario and Nova Scotia have also seen recent price increases starting late last year.

However, the non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS HPI remains 3.4 per cent below June 2023 levels, reflecting the sharp price increases that occurred in the spring and early summer of 2023. The national average home price in June was $696,179, down 1.6 per cent from the same month the previous year.

Our takeaways: the story of Canada’s housing market in June 2024 is one of cautious optimism and evolving dynamics. The early signs of revival triggered by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate strategy have laid the groundwork for continued cuts and expected (hopeful) growth in the coming years.

With a projected 6.1 per cent increase in property sales this year and continued growth into 2025, there’s a sense of nervous anticipation as buyers’ and sellers’ expectations have more ground to cover. However, the story is far from over.

The market’s future depends on overcoming challenges like rebuilding buyer confidence and managing the complex relationship of supply and demand. Looking ahead, the ongoing story of Canada’s housing market promises a mix of resilience, adaptation and hopeful progression.

Home sales in the GTA dropped in June compared to the same month last year. Despite the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut at the beginning of June, many potential buyers remained hesitant to enter the market. This resulted in a high supply that created a slight dip in the average selling price compared to the prior year. 

Source: TRREB

Fewer sales from a year ago but with over 12% more new listings

There were 6,213 home sales in June 2024, representing a 16.4 per cent decrease from the 7,429 sales recorded in June 2023. However, new listings increased by 12.3 per cent year-over-year, reaching 17,964. 

Source: TRREB

The average selling price in June 2024 was $1,162,167, down 1.6 per cent from $1,181,002 in June 2023. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark decreased by 4.6 per cent compared to the previous year.

First half of 2024 performed better than all of 2023

Annual sales were $1,126,279 last year. After six months into 2024, we’re currently at an average of $1,130,744 which is slightly better than all of 2023. Sales have been steadily increasing since their fall in December 2023 which helped us achieve a slightly higher sales average. The current 6,213 June sales compared to December 2023’s 3,420 demonstrates the changing economy.

Source: TRREB

While the recent rate cut provided some relief, most homebuyers are likely waiting for multiple rate reductions before re-entering the market. This proves that the current well-supplied market has given recent home buyers more choice and negotiating power on prices. As sales increase alongside lower borrowing costs, the elevated inventory levels will help prevent a rapid increase in selling prices. 

As the market adjusts to changing economic conditions, any first-time buyers and sellers in the GTA will be closely watching for further interest rate cuts and their impact on housing affordability and the ever-changing consumer market.

National home sales in Canada edged down 0.6 per cent month-over-month last month, with actual monthly activity coming in 5.9 per cent below May 2023 levels.

On the other hand, sales activity remained below the 10-year average, as the number of newly listed properties increased by 0.5 per cent month-over-month in May.

More homes for sale across Canada thanks to new listings and slow sales

More new listings amid slower sales have led to an increasing number of homes for sale across most Canadian markets. About 175,000 properties were listed for sale nationally at the end of May 2024, representing a 28.4 per cent increase from a year earlier, but remaining below historical averages. There were 4.4 months of inventory nationally, up from 4.2 months in April, the highest level for this measure since the fall of 2019.

The MLS Home Price Index dipped 0.2 per cent month-over-month in May. The non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price was down 4.0 per cent year-over-year at $699,117.

Largely flat prices with a few anomalies

Home prices are largely flat across most markets, except for steady increases in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 52.8 per cent, still within the 45-65 per cent range for balanced market conditions. The non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price was down 4.0 per cent year-over-year.

Lower interest rates & the psychological effect on homebuyers

The Bank of Canada’s recent 25 basis point rate cut is expected to have a significant psychological effect on potential homebuyers who have been sitting on the sidelines, bringing pent-up demand back into the market.

However, the pace and extent of further rate cuts will determine the impact on the housing market.

Canadian housing activity saw another quiet month in May, with sales edging slightly lower and new listings moving only a little higher. We’ll see what happens in the coming months, when the Bank of Canada’s rate cut is expected to create a revival.