The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently reported that Ottawa’s “population-adjusted construction is at its lowest level in nearly 10 years.” A City of Ottawa progress report shows that Ottawa is only at 22 per cent of its annual housing target at the end of August.  

The Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reported a healthy increase in home sales for September, with 1,047 units — a rise of 11.4 per cent from the same time in 2023. However, sales remain below historical averages, coming in 17.4 per cent below the five-year average and 15.4 per cent below the 10-year average for September.

Year-to-date, home sales reached 10,485 units, representing a 6.4 per cent increase compared to September 2023.

Healthy fall outlook with chronic supply issue — ‘not building enough of the right homes to address the ‘missing middle’’

“As we navigate a shifting housing market, Ottawa’s fall outlook is healthy,” says OREB president Curtis Fillier. “Activity is robust with an uptick in sales and prices remaining steady. Meanwhile, both buyers and sellers are rethinking their purchasing power amid news about additional interest rate cuts on the horizon, longer amortizations and increased price caps for insured mortgages.”

Fillier goes on to explain that recent policy developments to stimulate demand have been encouraging, though the Ottawa market doesn’t typically experience issues with demand. Rather, “We have chronic supply issues,” he notes. “We’re not building enough homes in the city, and we’re not building enough of the right homes to address the ‘missing middle.’”  

Price trends

The overall MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for September was $642,800, a slight increase of 0.2 per cent from September 2023.

Single-family homes saw a benchmark price of $729,000, up 0.5 per cent year-over-year, townhouses/row units experienced a 1.7 per cent decline with a benchmark price of $500,000 and apartments had a benchmark price of $414,200, down 1.3 per cent year-over-year.

Inventory and new listings

September’s new listings totalled 2,343 units, a 3.9 per cent increase from the year prior. This was 4.7 per cent above the five-year average and 11.6 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

Active listings rose to 3,529 units, marking a 16.9 per cent year-over-year increase and sitting 43.3 per cent above the five-year average. Months of inventory rose slightly to 3.4 months, up from 3.2 months in September 2023, indicating a slightly more balanced market.

Review the full report here.

The Ottawa real estate market saw increased activity in August, with 1,100 homes sold, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This marks a 10.2 per cent rise compared to August 2023, though sales remained below both the five-year (-11.4 per cent) and 10-year (-14.1 per cent) averages for the month.

Year-to-date, Ottawa has recorded 9,444 home sales in 2024, a 6.0 per cent increase from the year prior.

Buyers remain cautious, advised to remain patient and work with realtors

“Being a seasonal market, it’s very encouraging to see sustained levels of activity throughout the whole summer,” says OREB president-elect Paul Czan. “And coupled with a third consecutive interest rate drop from the Bank of Canada, we are anticipating a heated market in the fall.”

While affordability remains a key concern for buyers, a steady stream of new listings and stable prices have kept them cautious. Czan notes that sellers must remain patient and work closely with realtors to price their homes appropriately and develop strong selling strategies.

Source: OREB

Price trends

Last month, the area’s composite benchmark price was $646,000, down by 0.3 per cent year-over-year. The benchmark price was $732,500 for single-family homes (-0.3 per cent), $502,200 for townhouse/row units (+0.3 per cent) and $416,800 for apartments (-1.2 per cent).

The average price of homes sold in August was $660,341, reflecting a 0.3 per cent increase from the year prior. Year-to-date, the average home price stands at $678,327, up 0.9 per cent from the previous year.

Inventory & listings

Ottawa’s housing inventory saw notable gains in August, with 1,907 new residential listings, 0.2 per cent more than the previous year. Active listings grew by 25.8 per cent to reach 3,324 units, while months of inventory rose to 3.0, up from 2.6 in August 2023.

In July, Ottawa’s housing market saw a significant uptick in activity, with 1,241 homes sold through the MLS system, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reports. This marks a 13.6 per cent increase from July 2023, signaling a strong month for sales.

However, despite this surge, home sales were still 7.1 per cent below the five-year average and 8.8 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of July. Year-to-date, total home sales reached 8,349 units in July, a 5.5 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Encouraging market activity but Ottawa needs supply-side action

“As the market pace typically slows in the summer, July’s activity is encouraging and could be a sign of more gains ahead,” says OREB president Curtis Fillier. “Buyer confidence is slowly but surely catching up while sellers continue to add a steady stream of new listings. Of course, the extent to which that translates into transactions depends on the type of properties and price points available in our communities as supply and affordability issues persist.”

“It’s too early to tell, but recent policy developments could be a boost,” says Fillier. “Two consecutive interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, coupled with the federal government’s introduction of 30-year amortization periods on mortgages for first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes, will help some buyers. However, these are demand policies, and Ottawa — as well as many cities across the country — needs action on the supply side.”

Housing supply growth challenges and OREB’s response

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report highlighted ongoing challenges in housing supply growth, pointing to municipal zoning restrictions and high development fees as significant barriers. Recent Ontario government data underscores these challenges, showing that Ottawa has built 1,593 homes out of its 12,583 target for 2024.

In response, OREB and its member realtors continue to advocate for solutions to the housing crisis, including allowing four units per lot and reducing high development fees.

Source: OREB

July prices

The overall MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price was $648,900 in July, a slight increase of 0.1 per cent from July 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $734,700, down 0.1 per cent year-over-year. Townhouse/row units saw a 3.4 per cent increase, with a benchmark price of $506,100. The benchmark apartment price was $422,800, a 0.9 per cent decrease from the previous year.

The average price of homes sold in July 2024 was $679,610, down 2.1 per cent from July 2023. Year-to-date, the average price stood at $681,082, up 1.0 per cent from last year.

July inventory & new listings

July 2024 also saw a 17.1 per cent increase in new residential listings, with 2,231 new listings hitting the market. This figure was 6.3 per cent above the five-year average and 6.9 per cent above the 10-year average for the month of July.

Active residential listings reached 3,480 units by the end of July, marking a 37 per cent increase from the previous year. This inventory level was 50.6 per cent above the five-year average but 2.3 per cent below the 10-year average for July. The months of inventory rose to 2.8 months in July, up from 2.3 months during the same time in 2023.

Review the full report here.

Engel & Völkers recently released its 2024 Mid-Year Luxury Real Estate Market Report, highlighting that luxury properties in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver are outperforming market trends in the $1 million-plus market segment.

The report addresses misconceptions about “Canada’s foreign buyer ban,” which the company says has affected the country’s image and disrupted condominium market dynamics, especially in new construction. It also reveals that the market is experiencing a decline in domestic investor activity, with sluggish condominium sales as buyers await relief from higher interest rates.

“Canada’s luxury real estate markets are demonstrating impressive resilience despite the slowdown in overall sales. While interest rates impact the conventional market, particularly first-time buyers, luxury buyers often pay in cash and are therefore less affected,” says Anthony Hitt, president and CEO of Engel & Völkers Americas.

“We anticipate that Canada’s luxury markets will remain stable as real estate continues to be an appealing and safe investment.”

Key national trends

Luxury home sales go against the grain

Sales of detached luxury homes are growing strong in major Canadian cities, defying overall market trends. Rising interest rates have a limited impact on the luxury market, as many buyers pay in cash.

For example, from January to June, Toronto saw a 4.73 per cent increase in prices for homes over $8 million compared to last year. In the first half of this year, Halifax reported a five per cent increase in sales for homes over $1 million. In the same period, Ottawa’s home prices grew by eight per cent for properties between $1 million and $1.99 million, and Vancouver saw a 4.7 per cent increase in the average sale price for homes between $2 million and $3.99 million despite more listings and fewer sales.

Decline in domestic investors

Homes are now mainly being bought and sold for standard reasons like relocating, upsizing and downsizing.

Most domestic investors have left the market due to decreased incentives and higher interest rates. The report notes that in fall 2023, the Bank of Canada indicated 30 per cent of residential home purchases in early 2023 were made by investors, down from under 20 per cent in 2014.

Sluggish condominium sales

Condominiums, which are normally entry-level homes for first-time buyers, are experiencing slow sales as buyers wait for interest rate relief. This lack of competition means buyers who would usually purchase condominiums are now competing for houses. Engel & Völkers predicts that intense competition for residential properties will eventually push buyers back to condominiums.

Millennials, now focused on building families and careers, find one-plus bedroom units insufficient. Likewise, Baby Boomers, who would normally downsize to condominiums, prefer to stay where they are due to the high prices and inadequate size of current condominium inventory.

Review the full report, including regional highlights and property spotlights, here.

Ottawa saw 1,439 homes sold last month, which was 0.1 per cent more than the same time last year and 7.5 per cent below the five-year average for June, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB).

Year-to-date, home sales totaled 7,109 units for the first half of the year — an increase of 4.2 per cent from the same period in 2023.

“Ottawa continues to see steady activity as we head into the summer market,” says OREB president, Curtis Fillier. “Unlike recent years, buyers have more room to wait, evaluate and be selective when searching for the right property at the right price, leading to a slight uptick in the days on market. Sellers are making moves as evidenced by the inventory and listings. After recovering from last year’s slowdown, Ottawa’s market performance is nearly back on par and continues to make gains.

It’s going to be an interesting summer and next half of the year. As confidence builds, there will be ample opportunities for both parties. Now is the time for sellers to ensure their property is at its best and priced appropriately to attract buyers who remain slightly reluctant. Buyers would do well to remember that inventory levels — and competition — can swing quickly in Ottawa’s tight market.”

Prices

The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was $647,700 in June, a decrease of 0.5 per cent from June 2023.

Single-family homes averaged $734,300, down 0.2 per cent year-over-year in June, townhouse /row unit homes averaged $501,500, down 1.6 per cent from the year prior, and apartment homes averaged $420,800, 1.7 per cent less than a year ago.

Inventory & new listings

Ottawa had an increase of 4.7 per cent more new listings last month (2,469) compared to June 2023, which was 0.8 per cent below the five-year average.

There were 3,585 total active listings, up 45.5 per cent from the same period last year, which was 57.8 per cent more than the five-year average. Months of inventory stood at 2.5, up from 1.7 the year prior.

Don’t just play the game – change it! With over 30 of the biggest names in real estate, sports, marketing and technology, the REALiTY 24 Conference will be the place to be to elevate your career as a REALTOR®, and it’s all happening at the Shaw Centre in Ottawa on March 6-7.

Networking

Hosted by the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), REALiTY 24 will bring together over 1,000 of the top-performing real estate salespeople and brokers from across Canada. You’ll hear directly from industry heavyweights, celebrity keynotes, changemakers and coaches on everything from creating an unstoppable brand to the impact storytelling has on building relationships with clients.

Returning to the conference will be the REALiTY 24 Tradeshow, featuring 30+ industry partners, start-ups, vendors and organizations that can help you grow your business. After each day, you can connect and network with the top professionals in the business at our after-hours events, including the annual President’s Reception and Dinner and YPN Boost, the premier networking event for the next generation of real estate leaders.

Speakers

The REALiTY 24 speaker lineup will feature some of the biggest names from across the globe, including NBA hall of famer and business entrepreneur, Earvin “Magic” Johnson, who will share his firsthand experiences on fostering growth and financial empowerment. CEO of FUBU and Shark Tank investor Daymond John will also be delivering a keynote address, discussing the importance of having a strong personal brand and sharing his proven strategies.

Success is the theme of the conference and we’re thrilled to have some of the best real estate and business coaches gracing the REALiTY 24 stage. Richard Robbins, co-founder and CEO of Richard Robbins International, will present innovative approaches to set your business apart and create memorable client experiences. Master coach Billy Van Raaphorst will conduct a dynamic talk about the invaluable concept of time management.

Known for empowering management teams and growing companies to handle the demands of success, Kathleen Black will also take the stage to share strategies for thriving amidst chaos. Matthew Ferrara, entrepreneur, CEO, professional speaker and business mentor, will share practical techniques for strengthening your mindset, honing your sales skills and engaging your network. Other real estate trailblazers taking the REALiTY 24 stage include Jess Lenouvel, visionary and founder of The Listings Lab, and Matt Lionetti, fan favourite REALTOR® and content creator with The Agency.

Panels

• Power Players: Leading Real Estate CEOs, where you’ll hear from four leading CEOs from prominent North American real estate brands as they discuss tech trends, broker models and recruitment strategies.
• Hopes and Fears: What’s in Store for the Year Ahead, discussing what lies ahead in real estate and how you can best prepare for the next five years to support your clients through uncertain times.
• Getting Ahead of the Curve: Business Strategies for Challenging Times, sharing tips and advice to make your business more resilient, like financial management, succession planning and effective strategies for future-proofing your business.
• Real Returns: Building Wealth with Real Estate, featuring leading industry experts as they dive into the world of investment properties and explain how to leverage them to boost your clients’ wealth and elevate your success.
• Innovate and Elevate: Tech Tools Advancing Real Estate, where our panelists will explore technology and share insights into AI’s growing role, financial strategies aiding homeownership and software refining the REALTOR®-client relationship.
• Next-Gen Realty: Insights from Tomorrow’s Top REALTORS®, featuring Ontario’s top-performing next-generation REALTORS® getting candid about their success and sharing business, marketing and sales tips that will take your business to the next level.
• Raising the Bar with TRESA (Q&A), where experienced REALTORS® will share their firsthand stories and experiences about how the launch of TRESA legislation has impacted their businesses.
• Coaches Corner: Winning Strategies from Top Coaches, where you’ll gain exclusive insights from North America’s leading career coaches and learn how to navigate the ever-changing real estate landscape from coaches who’ve rewritten the rules of success.

REALiTY 24 is the place to be to discover strategies for navigating challenging market conditions and turning setbacks into opportunities for growth and success – essential for any REALTOR® looking to stay ahead of the game.

Make sure to register at https://realityconference.ca/

Last month, Jason Spartalis and Marc Papineau and their group at Team Today joined eXp Realty.

Spartalis and Papineau founded Team Today, a real estate company that does property marketing, management, remodels and more in the Ottawa area. Its eight agents closed about $52 million on 143 units last year. Of this, Spartalis and Papineau were responsible for 50 transactions.

Over 13 years, Team Today worked through affiliations with several real estate brokerages, including Keller Williams and Re/Max. Recently, the duo felt it was time for a new way of doing business, which prompted the decision to join eXp.

“Working with top-level brokers who would otherwise be competition is one of the best advantages”

Papineau calls this decision a “no-brainer” and says, “eXp’s business plan makes absolute sense. Working with top-level brokers who would otherwise be competition is one of the best advantages eXp has to offer. We work together to build our businesses up while helping others in our organization and setting up our leveraged future.”

The experience so far

About the team’s experience so far, Spartalis notes it’s been quite positive. “We’re impressed by (eXp’s) professionalism and punctuality, and the staff’s kindness has created a welcoming atmosphere. The onboarding process was smooth, and the ongoing support has made our integration seamless,” he explains.

Century 21 Action Power Team Ltd. was recently sold to Marc-Andre Perrier and Stephen George, who both began in real estate with the company. The pair saw the opportunity to continue the 45-year legacy built by former owners, Pasquale Ricciuti and Suzanne Robinson.

“We’re passionate about growth and innovation,” says Perrier in a release. “We want to expand our team, embrace emerging technologies and leverage all the tools that Century 21 Canada provides.”

“It’s great to see new owners come into established brokerages with a fresh perspective,” says Todd Shyiak, executive vice president of Century 21 Canada.

“As longtime members of our network, Marc-Andre and Stephen are in the best position to continue our commitment to the gold standard level of service while also looking for ways to bring in new technology and training programs that will see the brokerage grow, year after year. They’ve been great to work with and we look forward to seeing them at our annual events for many years to come.”

What led them to purchase

George was ready to bring a fresh perspective to the industry. “We’ve witnessed significant change during our time here,” he explains. “We want to take advantage of the cutting-edge technology and new opportunities that Century 21 Canada offers to brokerages.”

Perrier praises the brand’s annual OneC21 conference, an opportunity for Century 21 professionals to get together, connect and learn.

“Our recent experience at the OneC21 conference was incredible,” mentions Perrier. “We enjoyed the networking opportunities and recognized how Century 21 Canada is leading the way in modernizing the real estate industry.”

George appreciates Century 21 staying ahead of the curve. “We admire how Century 21 Canada is continuously improving their technology offerings,” he explains. “Their websites for every agent and their partnership with MoxiWorks are just two examples. We knew our brokerage could become even more future-ready.”

What’s next?

The new owners are embracing the future in the plans for the brokerage. They look to bring on like-minded agents who share their values and can thrive in change. This strategy includes leveraging local expertise and focusing on what sets Ottawa and area communities apart.

“It’s all about serving our local communities and continuing to give back,” says George. “We want to provide exceptional service and expertise in our specific areas.”

This week, the federal government’s mid-year statement included housing costs. CIBC Economics reports that softer growth, higher interest rates and initiatives announced since the budget mean the updated deficit numbers aren’t as favourable in terms of fiscal balances as was anticipated. That said, they’re still much better than what we’re seeing in the US: in each of the next few years, Canadian federal deficits are expected to be less than 1.5 per cent of GDP.

Housing issues: $15 billion loan program + other steps

The Canadian government is focused on new steps to address housing challenges and increase rental housing supply, with rent inflation one of the worst culprits of overall inflation in the country.

In terms of what these steps and initiatives are, there’s a wide variety.

The biggest is adding $15 billion in loans under a program that finances rental housing developers beginning in 2025-2026. Another $1 billion was added to a fund that supports affordable housing, also starting in the same period. Earlier, the government also announced removal of GST on purpose-built rental housing, and that it would boost CMHC insurance activity around rental apartments.

CIBC points out that while these steps are significant, it will take time for the additional supply to be built and slow rent inflation.

In addition, to help reduce rent inflation, the forbidding of deducting tax on expenses for units used for short-term rentals within jurisdictions with restrictions against them. This will help encourage owners to rent these units to long-term tenants.

OREA applauds for taking action

In a release, the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA)’s CEO, Tim Hudak, shares his take: “The Government of Canada’s housing-focused Fall Economic Statement is a clear indication the federal government is taking this issue seriously, and OREA commends Housing Minister Sean Fraser and the Trudeau Government for continuing to take action.

Ontario realtors are pleased to see several pro-housing, pro-supply measures on the table today, including a commitment of $15-billion in low-cost loans for new purpose-built rentals and $1-billion dedicated to new non-profit housing. As interest rates have increased over the past year, financing has become increasingly expensive – so programs such as this can help get rental housing construction underway.”

Hudak mentions that “Canada needs more skilled tradespeople, and OREA applauds the Federal government for their commitment to work with the provinces and territories on implementing full interprovincial mobility for construction workers.”

He also notes that realtors have advocated for reforms to the mortgage stress test and that OREA is “… thrilled to see this stringent requirement removed as part of the new ‘Canadian Mortgage Charter’. Homeowners will now have greater flexibility and choice when renewing their mortgages, particularly at a time when households are already feeling financial squeeze.”

Read CIBC Economics’ report here.